Scenario simulation of water retention services under land use/cover and climate changes: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

Comprehensive assessments of ecosystem services in environments under the influences human activities and climate change are critical for sustainable regional management. Therefore, integrated interdisciplinary modelling has become a major focus service assessment. In this study, we established model that integrates land use/cover (LUCC), change, water retention to evaluate spatial temporal variations Loess Plateau China historical period (2000–2015) future (2020–2050). An improved Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) was used simulate use/land cover patterns, ArcGIS 10.2 software assess from 2000 2050 six combined scenarios, including three scenarios (historical scenario (HS), ecological protection (EPS), urban expansion (UES)) two (RCP4.5 RCP8.5, where RCP is representative concentration pathway). LUCCs (2020–2050) dominated by transformations among agricultural land, grassland. Urban UES increased significantly 0.63×103 km2/a, which higher than increase HS EPS. Plateau, yield decreased 17.20×106 mm 0.09×106 (2000–2015), especially Interior drainage zone its surrounding areas. (2020–2050), pixel means RCP4.5 (96.63 mm) RCP8.5 (95.46 mm), (1.95 (1.38 mm). RCP4.5-EPS shows highest total capacity on plateau scale with value 1.27×106 mm. Ecological restoration projects have enhanced soil retention. However, more attention needs be paid not only simultaneous evapotranspiration but also type layout restored vegetation. Furthermore, urbanization controlled prevent uncontrollable change. Our findings provide reference data resources management development socio-ecological systems LUCC scenarios.